Brighton vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Brighton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brighton vs Newcastle?
Brighton starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (2,335 vs 2,215).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Brighton vs Newcastle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Brighton
4-2-3-1- 19C. Kostoulas
- 13P. Groß
- 25D. Gómez
- 29M. De Cuyper
- 26Y. Ayari
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli
- 21O. Boscagli
- 44L. Vušković
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 4P. Struijk
- 1B. Verbruggen
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 11H. Barnes
- 9Y. Wissa
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Newcastle have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Brighton wins, 2 draws, 1 Newcastle win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Newcastle 3-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Brighton 2-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| May 4, 2025 | Brighton 1-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Newcastle 1-2 Brighton | FA Cup |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Newcastle 0-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| May 11, 2024 | Newcastle 1-1 Brighton | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Brighton score 2.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2.4 | 0.9 | 9 | 4/15 | 10/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brighton sit 3rd in Premier League (13 points from 6 matches) and Newcastle sit 11th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
A question about Brighton vs Newcastle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Brighton vs Newcastle played?
- Brighton vs Newcastle is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.