Newcastle vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 13Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester United wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,564 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Manchester United?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,044) and Manchester United (2,083).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newcastle vs Manchester United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 10W. Osula
- 11H. Barnes
- 6Nico González
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 9Y. Wissa
- 3L. Hall
- 37A. Dedić
- 33D. Burn
- 12M. Thiaw
- 21L. Horníček
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 16A. Diallo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 37K. Mainoo
- 5H. Maguire
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 15Leny Yoro
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 1S. Lammens
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 03:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Manchester United have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Everton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Newcastle wins, 0 draws, 2 Manchester United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Newcastle 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Manchester United 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Newcastle 4-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Manchester United 0-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| May 15, 2024 | Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Newcastle 1-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Manchester United on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 12th in Premier League (12 points from 10 matches) and Manchester United sit 18th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Newcastle vs Manchester United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Manchester United played?
- Newcastle vs Manchester United is played on December 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.