Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Nottingham Forest the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Nottingham Forest (2,144) and Chelsea (2,160).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nottingham Forest have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Chelsea have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nottingham Forest win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Chelsea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Chelsea 1-3 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Nottingham Forest 0-3 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | Nottingham Forest 0-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Chelsea 1-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| May 11, 2024 | Nottingham Forest 2-3 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Chelsea 0-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nottingham Forest score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Chelsea | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab model makes Nottingham Forest the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea played?
- Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The City Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.