Ipswich vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk
The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Ipswich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ipswich vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (2,202 vs 2,019).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ipswich have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ipswich win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2025 | Aston Villa 1-1 Ipswich | Premier League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Ipswich 2-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 26, 2019 | Aston Villa 2-1 Ipswich | Championship |
| Aug 18, 2018 | Ipswich 1-1 Aston Villa | Championship |
| Apr 21, 2018 | Ipswich 0-4 Aston Villa | Championship |
| Nov 25, 2017 | Aston Villa 2-0 Ipswich | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Ipswich on Feb 15, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ipswich score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ipswich sit 7th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Aston Villa sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ipswich vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Ipswich.
- Where and when is Ipswich vs Aston Villa played?
- Ipswich vs Aston Villa is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Portman Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.