Bristol City vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 35Kick-off on March 2, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
The Footlab model makes Birmingham the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Bristol City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol City vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Bristol City (1,834) and Birmingham (1,920).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol City have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bristol City win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Birmingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birmingham 2-2 Bristol City | Championship |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Birmingham 2-1 Bristol City | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bristol City 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Birmingham 0-0 Bristol City | Championship |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Bristol City 0-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Bristol City 4-2 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham vs Bristol City on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol City score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol City sit 19th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Birmingham sit 13th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol City vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab model makes Birmingham the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Bristol City.
- Where and when is Bristol City vs Birmingham played?
- Bristol City vs Birmingham is played on March 2, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Ashton Gate Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.