Birmingham vs Bristol City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Birmingham the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Bristol City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham vs Bristol City?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Birmingham (1,919) and Bristol City (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Bristol City have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Birmingham win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Bristol City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Birmingham 2-1 Bristol City | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bristol City 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Birmingham 0-0 Bristol City | Championship |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Bristol City 0-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Bristol City 4-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Birmingham 3-0 Bristol City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham vs Bristol City on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol City score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Bristol City | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birmingham sit 15th in Championship (1 points from 1 matches) and Bristol City sit 23rd (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Who is out?
7 reported absence(s) for this match.
- L. BuchananBirminghamDoubtful(Knee Injury)
- Marc Henry LeonardBirminghamOut(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- M. DuckschBirminghamOut(Inactive)
- T. Gardner-HickmanBirminghamOut(Inactive)
- A. RandellBristol CityOut(Red Card)
- L. McNallyBristol CityOut(Knee Injury)
- O. ThomasBristol CityDoubtful(Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Bristol City?
- The Footlab model makes Birmingham the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Bristol City.
- Where and when is Birmingham vs Bristol City played?
- Birmingham vs Bristol City is played on August 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at St Andrew's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.