Cardiff vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 35Kick-off on March 2, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Derby?
Cardiff starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,875).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Derby have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cardiff win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Derby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby 2-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Cardiff 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Derby 1-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| May 7, 2022 | Derby 0-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Mar 1, 2022 | Cardiff 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Mar 2, 2021 | Cardiff 4-0 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 12th in Championship (2 points from 2 matches) and Derby sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Derby?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Derby.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Derby played?
- Cardiff vs Derby is played on March 2, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.