Budapest Honved vs Paks: prediction and stats
NB IRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Bozsik Aréna, Budapest
The Footlab model makes Paks the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Budapest Honved. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Budapest Honved vs Paks?
Paks starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,861 vs 1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Budapest Honved have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Paks have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Vasas(home) | 1-2 | NB I |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Paks(away) | 2-2 | NB I |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MTK Budapest(home) | 3-3 | NB I |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kisvarda FC(away) | 1-1 | NB I |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NK Osijek(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ujpest(home) | 2-0 | NB I |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Puskas Academy(away) | 2-3 | NB I |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Budapest Honved(home) | 2-2 | NB I |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(away) | 2-5 | NB I |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Panathinaikos(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Budapest Honved win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Paks win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Paks 2-2 Budapest Honved | NB I |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Budapest Honved 1-5 Paks | Magyar Kupa |
| Nov 2, 2023 | Budapest Honved 2-2 Paks | Magyar Kupa |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Budapest Honved 1-2 Paks | NB I |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Paks 5-0 Budapest Honved | NB I |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Budapest Honved 3-3 Paks | NB I |
Last archived meeting: Paks vs Budapest Honved on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Budapest Honved score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Paks score 2.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budapest Honved | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Paks | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Budapest Honved sit 11th in NB I (3 points from 4 matches) and Paks sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paks | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Budapest Honved vs Paks?
- The Footlab model makes Paks the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Budapest Honved.
- Where and when is Budapest Honved vs Paks played?
- Budapest Honved vs Paks is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Bozsik Aréna, in the NB I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.