Bugesera vs Gicumbi: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bugesera Stadium, Nyamata
The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Gicumbi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bugesera wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bugesera vs Gicumbi?
On Elo ratings, Bugesera has 1,668 points and Gicumbi 1,572.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bugesera vs Gicumbi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bugesera
Not enough data to predict the Bugesera lineup.
Gicumbi
Not enough data to predict the Gicumbi lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 02:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bugesera have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Gicumbi have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | AS Kigali(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Etoile de l'Est(away) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Amagaju(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Police(away) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 31, 2026 | APR(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bugesera wins, 1 draw, 1 Gicumbi win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Gicumbi 2-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Bugesera 1-0 Gicumbi | National Soccer League |
| Jun 18, 2022 | Gicumbi 0-2 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Jan 27, 2022 | Bugesera 2-0 Gicumbi | National Soccer League |
| Dec 14, 2019 | Gicumbi 1-2 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Mar 16, 2019 | Gicumbi 1-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Bugesera score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gicumbi score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bugesera | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Gicumbi | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bugesera sit 10th in National Soccer League (3 points from 2 matches) and Gicumbi sit 1st (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
A question about Bugesera vs Gicumbi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bugesera vs Gicumbi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bugesera the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Gicumbi.
- Where and when is Bugesera vs Gicumbi played?
- Bugesera vs Gicumbi is played on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bugesera Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.