AS Kigali vs Sunrise: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Régional de Nyamirambo, Kigali
The Footlab model makes AS Kigali the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Sunrise. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AS Kigali vs Sunrise?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate AS Kigali (1,660) and Sunrise (1,601).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AS Kigali have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Sunrise have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 22, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 15, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | APR(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Marines(home) | 3-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 4, 2024 | Amagaju(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Gorilla(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Gasogi United(away) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AS Kigali win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Sunrise win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2024 | Sunrise 0-2 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
| Nov 5, 2023 | AS Kigali 0-1 Sunrise | National Soccer League |
| Feb 16, 2023 | AS Kigali 2-2 Sunrise | National Soccer League |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Sunrise 2-1 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
| Dec 1, 2019 | AS Kigali 2-2 Sunrise | National Soccer League |
| Mar 27, 2019 | Sunrise 1-1 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
AS Kigali score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sunrise score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Kigali | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sunrise | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | AS Kigali | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 27 | 39 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AS Kigali vs Sunrise?
- The Footlab model makes AS Kigali the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Sunrise.
- Where and when is AS Kigali vs Sunrise played?
- AS Kigali vs Sunrise is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Régional de Nyamirambo, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.