Marines vs Etoile de l'Est: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model makes Marines the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Etoile de l'Est. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,993 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marines vs Etoile de l'Est?
Marines starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,640 vs 1,508).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marines vs Etoile de l'Est
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marines
Not enough data to predict the Marines lineup.
Etoile de l'Est
Not enough data to predict the Etoile de l'Est lineup.
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 03:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marines have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Etoile de l'Est have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Etincelles(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | APR(away) | 2-4 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Amagaju(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 11, 2024 | Bugesera(home) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Marines wins, 0 draws, 2 Etoile de l'Est wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2024 | Etoile de l'Est 1-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Marines 3-2 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| May 7, 2022 | Etoile de l'Est 2-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Marines 2-1 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Etoile de l'Est vs Marines on Apr 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Marines score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Etoile de l'Est score 0.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marines sit 3rd in National Soccer League (7 points from 4 matches) and Etoile de l'Est sit 16th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
A question about Marines vs Etoile de l'Est?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marines vs Etoile de l'Est?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marines the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Etoile de l'Est.
- Where and when is Marines vs Etoile de l'Est played?
- Marines vs Etoile de l'Est is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.