Where and when is Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta played?

Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares, Burgos

Burgos Promesas

UD Santa Marta

The Footlab model makes Burgos Promesas the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for UD Santa Marta. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Burgos Promesas (1,818) and UD Santa Marta (1,807).

Burgos Promesas win45 %

Draw28 %

UD Santa Marta win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burgos Promesas have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; UD Santa Marta have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Burgos Promesas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Real Valladolid II(away)	0-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Salamanca UDS(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 18, 2026	Atlético Astorga(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 12, 2026	Coruxo(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 5, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	1-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

UD Santa Marta
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 16, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 10, 2026	Almazán(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Palencia CF(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Burgos Promesas win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 UD Santa Marta win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 16, 2025	Burgos Promesas 1-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 27, 2024	UD Santa Marta 0-0 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 10, 2024	Burgos Promesas 1-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Sep 23, 2023	UD Santa Marta 1-2 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 22, 2020	Burgos Promesas 1-2 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Sep 28, 2019	UD Santa Marta 0-2 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta on Mar 16, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Burgos Promesas score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Burgos Promesas	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15
UD Santa Marta	1.5	1.3	2	11/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	UD Santa Marta	34	18	8	8	53	31	62

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta?: The Footlab model makes Burgos Promesas the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for UD Santa Marta.
Where and when is Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta played?: Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.