Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1, Bembibre
The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Bembibre. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD Santa Marta wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta?
UD Santa Marta starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,841 vs 1,720).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bembibre
Not enough data to predict the Bembibre lineup.
UD Santa Marta
Not enough data to predict the UD Santa Marta lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 04:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bembibre have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; UD Santa Marta have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Arandina(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Unionistas II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | La Virgen del Camino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atlético Mansillés(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mirandés II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Burgos Promesas(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa II(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 1-2 | Copa Federacion |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Palencia CF(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bembibre wins, 2 draws, 2 UD Santa Marta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Bembibre 2-2 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 2-0 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 4, 2025 | Bembibre 2-2 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 0-1 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Bembibre 2-0 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | UD Santa Marta 3-2 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bembibre score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; UD Santa Marta score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bembibre | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| UD Santa Marta | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bembibre sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (14 points from 7 matches) and UD Santa Marta sit 5th (14 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
A question about Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Bembibre.
- Where and when is Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta played?
- Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 29, 2026GuijuelovsCultural Leonesa II
- Nov 29, 2026ArandinavsVillaralbo
- Nov 29, 2026Cristo AtléticovsAlmazán
- Nov 29, 2026La Virgen del CaminovsPalencia CF
- Nov 29, 2026Mirandés IIvsCalasanz de Soria
- Nov 29, 2026Atlético MansillésvsBurgos Promesas
- Nov 29, 2026TuréganovsSalamanca II
- Nov 29, 2026Unionistas IIvsColegios Diocesanos