Burgos vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos
The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellón wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
On Elo ratings, Burgos has 1,957 points and Castellón 2,007.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burgos vs Castellón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burgos
4-4-2- 7Jon Karrikaburu
- 16Curro Sánchez
- 19Javi Llabrés
- 14David González
- 12Unai Vencedor
- 20José Gragera
- 23Alberto Dadie
- 15Oier Luengo
- 8Grego
- 22Brais Martínez
- 13Ander Cantero
Castellón
3-4-2-1- 9Ousmane Camara
- 8Barri
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 10Israel Suero
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 21Álvaro Martín
- 2Juanjo Nieto
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 13R. Matthys
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burgos have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Castellón have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Almeria(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 11, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Girona(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Burgos wins, 1 draw, 3 Castellón wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Castellón 3-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Burgos 0-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Castellón 2-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Burgos 0-2 Castellón | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Burgos score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Castellón | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burgos sit 6th in Segunda División (14 points from 8 matches) and Castellón sit 2nd (20 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Burgos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
A question about Burgos vs Castellón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burgos vs Castellón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Burgos vs Castellón played?
- Burgos vs Castellón is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.