Eibar vs Almeria: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, Eibar
The Footlab model makes Eibar the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Almeria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eibar vs Almeria?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Eibar (2,017) and Almeria (2,027).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eibar have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Almeria have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cordoba(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Eibar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Almeria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Eibar 1-0 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Almeria 3-1 Eibar | Segunda División |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Eibar 1-0 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Almeria 2-2 Eibar | Segunda División |
| Jan 24, 2022 | Almeria 0-2 Eibar | Segunda División |
| Oct 15, 2021 | Eibar 1-0 Almeria | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Eibar score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Almeria score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 1.6 | 1.1 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Almeria | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eibar sit 12th in Segunda División (3 points from 2 matches) and Almeria sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Almeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Eibar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eibar vs Almeria?
- The Footlab model makes Eibar the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Almeria.
- Where and when is Eibar vs Almeria played?
- Eibar vs Almeria is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.