Burreli vs Oriku: prediction and stats
1st DivisionRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Liri Ballabani, Burreli
The Footlab model makes Burreli the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Oriku. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burreli vs Oriku?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Burreli (1,538) and Oriku (1,494).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burreli have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Oriku have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Apolonia Fier(away) | 4-4 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lushnja(home) | 1-0 | 1st Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-2 | 1st Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Skenderbeu Korce(home) | 0-1 | 1st Division |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Laci(away) | 1-3 | 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | FK Kukesi(away) | 0-1 | 1st Division |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Tomori Berat(home) | 3-2 | 2nd Division - Play-offs |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Butrinti Sarandë(home) | 1-1 | 2nd Division - Play-offs |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Memaliaj(away) | 7-0 | 2nd Division - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Burreli win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Oriku win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | Oriku 2-1 Burreli | 1st Division |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Burreli 1-0 Oriku | 1st Division |
| Mar 28, 2021 | Burreli 2-0 Oriku | 1st Division |
| Dec 24, 2020 | Oriku 1-1 Burreli | 1st Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Burreli score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Oriku score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burreli | 0.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Oriku | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Burreli | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 45 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burreli vs Oriku?
- The Footlab model makes Burreli the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Oriku.
- Where and when is Burreli vs Oriku played?
- Burreli vs Oriku is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani, in the 1st Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.