Bury Town vs Alvechurch: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - Southern CentralRegular Season - 28Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Atalian Servest Stadium, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Alvechurch. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury Town vs Alvechurch?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Bury Town (1,848) and Alvechurch (1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury Town have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Alvechurch have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leamington(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stratford Town(away) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stamford(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Halesowen Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Sudbury(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bishop's Stortford(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Needham Market(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Worcester City(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kettering Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Bury Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Alvechurch win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Alvechurch 1-3 Bury Town | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Bury Town 0-1 Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
Last archived meeting: Alvechurch vs Bury Town on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bury Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alvechurch score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Alvechurch | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bury Town sit 2nd in Non League Premier - Southern Central (9 points from 3 matches) and Alvechurch sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Alvechurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury Town vs Alvechurch?
- The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Alvechurch.
- Where and when is Bury Town vs Alvechurch played?
- Bury Town vs Alvechurch is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Atalian Servest Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Southern Central.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 16, 2027StamfordvsBanbury United
- Jan 16, 2027Halesowen TownvsKettering Town
- Jan 16, 2027Bishop's StortfordvsRedditch United
- Jan 16, 2027Bromsgrove SportingvsReal Bedford
- Jan 16, 2027LeistonvsRacing Club Warwick
- Jan 16, 2027Peterborough SportsvsHitchin Town
- Jan 16, 2027LeamingtonvsStratford Town
- Jan 16, 2027Anstey NomadsvsNeedham Market