Bury vs Ashton United: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gigg Lane, Bury, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Ashton United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bury wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,674 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury vs Ashton United?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,995 vs 1,849).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bury vs Ashton United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bury
Not enough data to predict the Bury lineup.
Ashton United
Not enough data to predict the Ashton United lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 11:38 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Ashton United have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Prescot Cables(home) | 3-0 | FA Trophy |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Harrogate Town(away) | 1-3 | FA Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Harrogate Town(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 1-0 | FA Trophy |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Avro(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Alfreton Town(home) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leek Town(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Bury score 2.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ashton United score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury | 2.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Ashton United | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bury sit 12th in Non League Premier - Northern (19 points from 11 matches) and Ashton United sit 17th (14 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 19 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 14 |
A question about Bury vs Ashton United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury vs Ashton United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Ashton United.
- Where and when is Bury vs Ashton United played?
- Bury vs Ashton United is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gigg Lane, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 9, 2027Alfreton TownvsLeek Town
- Jan 9, 2027WorkingtonvsHyde United
- Jan 9, 2027Bamber BridgevsGuiseley AFC
- Jan 9, 2027Lancaster CityvsGainsborough Trinity
- Jan 9, 2027United of ManchestervsIlkeston Town
- Jan 9, 2027Warrington TownvsRedcar Athletic
- Jan 9, 2027Whitby TownvsRylands
- Jan 9, 2027QuornvsCurzon Ashton