Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Giant Axe Stadium, Lancaster, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Lancaster City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gainsborough Trinity wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,864 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Lancaster City (1,774) and Gainsborough Trinity (1,862).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lancaster City
Not enough data to predict the Lancaster City lineup.
Gainsborough Trinity
Not enough data to predict the Gainsborough Trinity lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 05:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lancaster City have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Gainsborough Trinity have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Leek Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Warrington Town(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Avro(away) | 3-5 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 4-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 6-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Anstey Nomads(home) | 2-3 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lancaster City wins, 1 draw, 2 Gainsborough Trinity wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lancaster City 3-0 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 0-0 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Lancaster City 1-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Gainsborough Trinity 1-2 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Lancaster City 2-1 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Gainsborough Trinity 1-0 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lancaster City score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gainsborough Trinity score 2.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster City | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lancaster City sit 11th in Non League Premier - Northern (20 points from 15 matches) and Gainsborough Trinity sit 4th (25 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 16 | 25 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 28 | 20 |
A question about Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Lancaster City.
- Where and when is Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity played?
- Lancaster City vs Gainsborough Trinity is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Giant Axe Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.