Bury vs Workington: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 17Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gigg Lane, Bury, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Workington. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury vs Workington?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (1,893 vs 1,689).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Workington have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avro(away) | 1-4 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Bury score 2.0 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Workington score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury | 2.0 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Workington | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bury sit 7th in Non League Premier - Northern (10 points from 5 matches) and Workington sit 19th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bury | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 19 | Workington | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury vs Workington?
- The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Workington.
- Where and when is Bury vs Workington played?
- Bury vs Workington is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gigg Lane, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Alfreton TownvsAFC Emley
- Oct 31, 2026Gainsborough TrinityvsBamber Bridge
- Oct 31, 2026Curzon AshtonvsLeek Town
- Oct 31, 2026Ilkeston TownvsHyde United
- Oct 31, 2026Cleethorpes TownvsAvro
- Oct 31, 2026Ashton UnitedvsRylands
- Oct 31, 2026United of ManchestervsLancaster City
- Oct 31, 2026Warrington TownvsQuorn