Busko-Zdroj vs Chełmianka Chełm: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 15Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Busko-Zdroj. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Busko-Zdroj vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Busko-Zdroj have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Chełmianka Chełm have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Star Starachowice(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg(home) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II(away) | 3-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Busko-Zdroj score 1.6 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 8; Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busko-Zdroj | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0 | 6/8 | 6/8 |
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Busko-Zdroj sit 14th in III Liga - Group 4 (5 points from 5 matches) and Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 14 | Busko-Zdroj | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Busko-Zdroj vs Chełmianka Chełm?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Busko-Zdroj.
- Where and when is Busko-Zdroj vs Chełmianka Chełm played?
- Busko-Zdroj vs Chełmianka Chełm is played on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Siarka TarnobrzegvsNaprzód
- Oct 31, 2026Korona Kielce IIvsWiślanie Jaśkowice
- Oct 31, 2026Podlasie Biała PodlaskavsMoravia Morawica
- Oct 31, 2026Wisłoka DębicavsKSZO 1929
- Oct 31, 2026JarosławvsCzarni Połaniec
- Oct 31, 2026Star StarachowicevsPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
- Oct 31, 2026Sokół Kolb.vsHetman Zamosc
- Oct 31, 2026KS Wieczysta Krakow IIvsWisła Kraków II