BuxDu vs Metalourg: prediction and stats
Pro League ARegular Season - 17Kick-off on August 27, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Metalourg the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for BuxDu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BuxDu vs Metalourg?
Metalourg starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,657 vs 1,467).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BuxDu have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Metalourg have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aral(away) | 0-2 | Pro League A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gazalkent(home) | 1-3 | Pro League A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Shortan(home) | 2-4 | Pro League A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jayxun(away) | 1-5 | Pro League A |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pakhtakor II(home) | 2-0 | Pro League A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Qiziriq(away) | 3-0 | Pro League A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Respublika FA(away) | 3-1 | Pro League A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Yaypan(home) | 1-1 | Pro League A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Aral(away) | 0-1 | Pro League A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lochin(home) | 5-0 | Pro League A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 BuxDu win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Metalourg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Metalourg 3-0 BuxDu | Pro League A |
How many goals should we expect?
BuxDu score 0.9 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Metalourg score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BuxDu | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Metalourg | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BuxDu sit 12th in Pro League A (10 points from 15 matches) and Metalourg sit 5th (28 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Metalourg | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Metalourg | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 14 | 28 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BuxDu vs Metalourg?
- The Footlab model makes Metalourg the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for BuxDu.
- Where and when is BuxDu vs Metalourg played?
- BuxDu vs Metalourg is played on August 27, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Pro League A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.