Buxton vs South Shields: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 28Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Silverlands, Buxton, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes South Shields the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Buxton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Buxton vs South Shields?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Buxton (1,888) and South Shields (1,937).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Buxton have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; South Shields have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bedford Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Southport(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hereford(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warrington Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Merthyr Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chorley(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(away) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gateshead(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Buxton win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 South Shields win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | South Shields 1-0 Buxton | National League - North |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Buxton 1-1 South Shields | National League - North |
| Aug 30, 2025 | South Shields 2-2 Buxton | National League - North |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Buxton 1-0 South Shields | National League - North |
| Sep 3, 2024 | South Shields 1-0 Buxton | National League - North |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Buxton 0-2 South Shields | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: South Shields vs Buxton on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Buxton score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; South Shields score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buxton | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| South Shields | 1.7 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Buxton sit 14th in National League - North (4 points from 4 matches) and South Shields sit 5th (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | South Shields | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Buxton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Buxton vs South Shields?
- The Footlab model makes South Shields the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Buxton.
- Where and when is Buxton vs South Shields played?
- Buxton vs South Shields is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Silverlands, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.