Marine vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 28Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Marine Travel Arena, Crosby, Merseyside
The Footlab AI model makes Marine the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marine wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marine vs Merthyr Town?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Marine (1,875) and Merthyr Town (1,910).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marine vs Merthyr Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marine
Not enough data to predict the Marine lineup.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marine have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Merthyr Town have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 2-0 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 2-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Radcliffe(home) | 3-2 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Truro City(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Marine wins, 0 draws, 1 Merthyr Town win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Merthyr Town 1-2 Marine | National League - North |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Marine 1-3 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Merthyr Town 1-3 Marine | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Merthyr Town vs Marine on Sep 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marine score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marine sit 16th in National League - North (15 points from 11 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 15th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 16 | Marine | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 15 |
A question about Marine vs Merthyr Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marine vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marine the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Marine vs Merthyr Town played?
- Marine vs Merthyr Town is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Marine Travel Arena, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.