Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MET: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 22, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The Oval, Caernarfon, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Cardiff MET. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MET?
Caernarfon Town starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,914 vs 1,807).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caernarfon Town have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Cardiff MET have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Holywell(home) | 6-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Town United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Caernarfon Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Cardiff MET win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Cardiff MET 2-4 Caernarfon Town | Welsh Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 0-3 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Cardiff MET 2-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 0-0 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 2-1 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Cardiff MET 4-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town on Dec 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff MET score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| Cardiff MET | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caernarfon Town sit 6th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and Cardiff MET sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MET?
- The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Cardiff MET.
- Where and when is Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MET played?
- Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MET is played on January 22, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The Oval, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.