Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Cyncoed Campus Artificial Pitch, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Cardiff MET. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town?
Caernarfon Town starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,914 vs 1,807).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff MET have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Holywell(home) | 6-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Town United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cardiff MET win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Cardiff MET 2-4 Caernarfon Town | Welsh Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 0-3 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Cardiff MET 2-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 0-0 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 2-1 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Cardiff MET 4-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town on Dec 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff MET score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff MET sit 10th in Premier League (6 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Cardiff MET.
- Where and when is Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Cyncoed Campus Artificial Pitch, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.