Cagliari vs Genoa: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Unipol Domus, Cagliari
The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-1. If Genoa wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cagliari vs Genoa?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Cagliari (1,982) and Genoa (1,952).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cagliari vs Genoa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cagliari
4-3-2-1- 31P. Mendy
- 6H. Winks
- 8M. Adopo
- 4A. Romano
- 70D. Maldini
- 79Y. Massolin
- 15J. Rodríguez
- 2Zé Pedro
- 33A. Obert
- 26Y. Mina
- 1E. Caprile
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 18M. Osmajić
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
- 25H. Traorè
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 22J. Vásquez
- 1J. Bijlow
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cagliari have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Genoa have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hellas Verona(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cagliari win, 3 draws, 2 Genoa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | Genoa 3-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Cagliari 3-3 Genoa | Serie A |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Cagliari 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Genoa 2-2 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Apr 29, 2024 | Genoa 3-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Cagliari 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Cagliari score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Genoa score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Genoa | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cagliari sit 4th in Serie A (13 points from 6 matches) and Genoa sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Cagliari vs Genoa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cagliari vs Genoa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Cagliari vs Genoa played?
- Cagliari vs Genoa is played on January 3, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Unipol Domus, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.