Fiorentina vs Lazio: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
The Footlab model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Lazio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Lazio?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Fiorentina (2,086) and Lazio (2,084).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Lazio have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | QPR(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Fiorentina win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lazio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Lazio 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Lazio 1-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| Feb 26, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| Oct 30, 2023 | Lazio 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lazio score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Lazio | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fiorentina sit 15th in Serie A (42 points from 38 matches) and Lazio sit 9th (54 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 40 | 54 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 50 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
- The Footlab model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Lazio.
- Where and when is Fiorentina vs Lazio played?
- Fiorentina vs Lazio is played on January 3, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.