Vitória de Sernache vs Caldas: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 14Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, Cernache do Bonjardim
The Footlab AI model makes Vitória de Sernache the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Caldas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vitória de Sernache wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,615 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs Caldas?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Vitória de Sernache (1,903) and Caldas (1,855).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vitória de Sernache vs Caldas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vitória de Sernache
4-3-3- 20Lucas Daniel
- 7A. Dias
- 20G. Barge
- 10André Dias
- 19E. Moura
- 6R. Embalo
- 17T. Marques
- 3Diego Tavares
- 4Matheus Matias
- 2Paulinho
- 1Joao Lucas
Caldas
4-3-3- 17Goncas
- 9G. Chaves
- 77G. Pio
- 80M. Palmerio
- 5R. Correia
- 22T. Serrazina
- 3Nando
- 20G. Lourenco
- 56Caio Amaral
- 25L. Farinha
- 12D. Almeida
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 06:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitória de Sernache have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Caldas have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nazarenos(away) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Sintrense(home) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-4 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Vitória de Sernache wins, 0 draws, 2 Caldas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Caldas 2-0 Vitória de Sernache | Liga 3 |
| Nov 3, 2019 | Vitória de Sernache 1-2 Caldas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Caldas vs Vitória de Sernache on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vitória de Sernache score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Caldas score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de Sernache | 1.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Caldas | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitória de Sernache sit 10th in Liga 3 (4 points from 6 matches) and Caldas sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Vitória de Sernache vs Caldas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitória de Sernache vs Caldas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vitória de Sernache the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Caldas.
- Where and when is Vitória de Sernache vs Caldas played?
- Vitória de Sernache vs Caldas is played on January 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.