Cambridge United vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 7Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Abbey Stadium, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire
The Footlab model makes Cambridge United the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cambridge United vs Gillingham?
Cambridge United starts as the favourite with a 241-point Elo edge (1,888 vs 1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cambridge United have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 3-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cambridge United win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Cambridge United 5-0 Gillingham | League Two |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Gillingham 1-1 Cambridge United | League Two |
| Jul 25, 2023 | Gillingham 0-4 Cambridge United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 8, 2022 | Gillingham 1-0 Cambridge United | League One |
| Sep 28, 2021 | Cambridge United 0-2 Gillingham | League One |
| Dec 8, 2020 | Cambridge United 2-0 Gillingham | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Cambridge United vs Gillingham on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cambridge United score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cambridge United sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (6 points from 3 matches) and Gillingham sit 3rd (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cambridge United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Gillingham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cambridge United vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Cambridge United the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Cambridge United vs Gillingham played?
- Cambridge United vs Gillingham is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Abbey Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.