Gillingham vs Northampton: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 7Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, Kent
The Footlab model makes Gillingham the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gillingham vs Northampton?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Gillingham (1,648) and Northampton (1,656).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gillingham have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Northampton have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Gillingham win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Northampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | Northampton 2-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Nov 12, 2022 | Gillingham 0-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Gillingham 2-2 Northampton | League One |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Northampton 3-1 Gillingham | League One |
| Feb 13, 2018 | Northampton 1-2 Gillingham | League One |
| Oct 21, 2017 | Gillingham 1-2 Northampton | League One |
Last archived meeting: Northampton vs Gillingham on Apr 10, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gillingham sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Northampton sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gillingham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gillingham vs Northampton?
- The Footlab model makes Gillingham the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Gillingham vs Northampton played?
- Gillingham vs Northampton is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Priestfield Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.