Cancún vs Venados FC: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo, Cancún
The Footlab model makes Cancún the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Venados FC. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cancún vs Venados FC?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Cancún (1,925) and Venados FC (1,887).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cancún have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Venados FC have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Durango(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 1-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-5 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cancún win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Venados FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Venados FC 2-0 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Cancún 1-0 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Cancún 1-2 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Venados FC 4-0 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Venados FC 2-0 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Cancún 2-1 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Cancún score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Venados FC score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancún | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Venados FC | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cancún sit 14th in Liga de Expansión MX (0 points from 2 matches) and Venados FC sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Venados FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Cancún | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Cancún | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cancún vs Venados FC?
- The Footlab model makes Cancún the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Venados FC.
- Where and when is Cancún vs Venados FC played?
- Cancún vs Venados FC is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.