Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón, Morelia
The Footlab model makes Monarcas the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for CDS Tampico Madero. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Monarcas (1,873) and CDS Tampico Madero (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monarcas have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; CDS Tampico Madero have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cancún(home) | 4-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | CA La Paz(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(away) | 0-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Monarcas win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 CDS Tampico Madero win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero 1-0 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Monarcas 0-0 CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Monarcas 1-0 CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 28, 2024 | CDS Tampico Madero 1-1 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: CDS Tampico Madero vs Monarcas on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Monarcas score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; CDS Tampico Madero score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monarcas | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| CDS Tampico Madero | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monarcas sit 4th in Liga de Expansión MX (6 points from 3 matches) and CDS Tampico Madero sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Monarcas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 9 | CDS Tampico Madero | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | CDS Tampico Madero | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero?
- The Footlab model makes Monarcas the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for CDS Tampico Madero.
- Where and when is Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero played?
- Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.