Durango vs Tapatío: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Tapatío. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,356 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Tapatío?
Durango starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (2,010 vs 1,835).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Durango vs Tapatío
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Durango
4-3-3- 27Juan Angulo
- 10J. González
- 17J. Reyes
- 5É. Cantú
- 16R. Domínguez
- 35S. Flores
- 30A. Escoboza
- 4J. Múñoz
- 21D. Oteo
- 2A. Garcia
- 1J. Munoz
Tapatío
4-3-3- 49V. Moragrega
- 57J. Hernández
- 58J. Uribe
- 44S. Zamora
- 60L. Ledesma
- 69D. Villaseca
- 53Carlo Soldati
- 46C. Hernandez
- 55S. Esparza
- 63M. Sánchez
- 45E. García
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Tapatío have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | CA La Paz(home) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Durango wins, 0 draws, 2 Tapatío wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | Durango 2-5 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Tapatío 3-1 Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tapatío score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Tapatío | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 8th in Liga de Expansión MX (18 points from 12 matches) and Tapatío sit 11th (14 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Durango | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 14 |
A question about Durango vs Tapatío?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Tapatío?
- The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Tapatío.
- Where and when is Durango vs Tapatío played?
- Durango vs Tapatío is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Zarco, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.