CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Guaycura, La Paz
The Footlab AI model makes CA La Paz the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Tlaxcala. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,447 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?
CA La Paz starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,902 vs 1,802).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
CA La Paz
3-4-2-1- 77J. Alonzo
- 5E. Torres
- 20M. García
- 25F. Illescas
- 6D. Hernández
- 13É. Alaffita
- 10M. Barragán
- 28U. Zurita
- 21C. Robles
- 16Yahir Del Aguila
- 33G. Alcalá
Tlaxcala
4-3-3- 24E. Robles
- 9Christian Henrique Mota de Oliveira Silva
- 11D. Álvarez
- 6A. Iniestra
- 16M. Ramírez
- 23P. González
- 1I. Govea
- 29M. Trejo
- 25B. Flores
- 3E. Santos
- 22N. Bedolla
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CA La Paz have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Tlaxcala have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cancún(home) | 4-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 0-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 CA La Paz wins, 2 draws, 0 Tlaxcala wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | CA La Paz 2-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Tlaxcala 3-3 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CA La Paz 4-4 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Tlaxcala 0-2 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Tlaxcala 2-3 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 27, 2023 | CA La Paz 1-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
CA La Paz score 2.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tlaxcala score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA La Paz | 2.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Tlaxcala | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CA La Paz sit 2nd in Liga de Expansión MX (23 points from 12 matches) and Tlaxcala sit 11th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CA La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 23 |
| 11 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | 15 |
A question about CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?
- The Footlab AI model makes CA La Paz the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Tlaxcala.
- Where and when is CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala played?
- CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Guaycura, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.