Piratas vs Tepatitlán: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Piratas the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Tepatitlán. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
On Elo ratings, Piratas has 1,851 points and Tepatitlán 1,813.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Piratas vs Tepatitlán
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Piratas
4-3-3- 8B. Figueroa
- 28J. Gamboa
- 25Daniel Lajud
- 7O. Soto
- 23J. Venegas
- 11A. Álvarez
- 14R. Gonzalez
- 3K. Jaime
- 6D. Cruz
- 22U. García
- 20H. Hernandez
Tepatitlán
3-1-4-2- 39J. Cruz
- 37L. Egurrola
- 22F. Sanguinetti
- 25A. Moreno
- 5D. Villalpando
- 18E. Martinez
- 9L. Paez
- 36J. Sánchez
- 38A. Cardenas
- 6G. Baez
- 30A. Gatica
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 12 matches in all competitions, Piratas have 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tepatitlán have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monarcas(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 3, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 0-5 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 1-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Piratas score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 12; Tepatitlán score 0.9 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 5/12 | 6/12 |
| Tepatitlán | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 12 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Piratas sit 7th in Liga de Expansión MX (18 points from 12 matches) and Tepatitlán sit 16th (7 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 7 |
A question about Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
- The Footlab AI model makes Piratas the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Tepatitlán.
- Where and when is Piratas vs Tepatitlán played?
- Piratas vs Tepatitlán is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC), in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.