Carlisle vs Gateshead: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 42Kick-off on March 29, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Gateshead. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,447 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs Gateshead?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 279-point Elo edge (1,920 vs 1,641).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Carlisle vs Gateshead
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Carlisle
4-3-3- 7D. Ajiboye
- 10R. Linney
- 9G. Kelly
- 6M. Azeez
- 4H. Bunker
- 30T. Jenks
- 15B. Nicholson
- 17L. Duru
- 5M. Feeney
- 18J. Ellis
- 1A. Desbois
Gateshead
4-3-3- 21M. Spellman
- 7J. Hiwula
- 29F. Issaka
- 4Josh Home
- 20F. John
- 25A. McCalmont
- 5A. Lankshear
- 3D. Ferguson
- 28H. Holgate
- 6Jack Robinson
- 12P. Jameson
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:27 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Gateshead have 1, 3 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 0-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | AFC Fylde(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-5 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 0-1 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves U21(home) | 0-0 | National League Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Altrincham(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Wealdstone(away) | 0-4 | National League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Carlisle win, 2 draws, 1 Gateshead win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Carlisle 0-0 Gateshead | National League |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Gateshead 0-3 Carlisle | National League |
| Jul 30, 2024 | Gateshead 2-0 Carlisle | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 18, 2020 | Gateshead 1-1 Carlisle | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gateshead score 0.6 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Gateshead | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 14th in National League (17 points from 13 matches) and Gateshead sit 24th (4 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 17 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 31 | 4 |
A question about Carlisle vs Gateshead?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs Gateshead?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Gateshead.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs Gateshead played?
- Carlisle vs Gateshead is played on March 29, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.