Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 66%, against 18% for a draw and 16% for Trethomas Bluebirds. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
Carmarthen Town starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,594 vs 1,490).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Trethomas Bluebirds have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Carmarthen Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Trethomas Bluebirds win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds 4-5 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 1-1 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Carmarthen Town 5-1 Trethomas Bluebirds | Welsh Cup |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Trethomas Bluebirds 3-0 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 2-0 Trethomas Bluebirds | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2021 | Carmarthen Town 2-1 Trethomas Bluebirds | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Trethomas Bluebirds vs Carmarthen Town on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 4th in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Trethomas Bluebirds sit 14th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 14 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 66%, against 18% for a draw and 16% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on August 31, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 31, 2026Aberystwyth Townvsllanelli AFC
- Aug 31, 2026Pontypridd TownvsLlantwit Major
- Aug 31, 2026Afan LidovsYnyshir Albions
- Aug 31, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsTreowen Stars
- Aug 31, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsPontardawe Town
- Aug 31, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Aug 31, 2026Newport CityvsSwansea University