Newport City vs Swansea University: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Newport Stadium, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Newport City. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport City vs Swansea University?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Newport City (1,536) and Swansea University (1,557).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport City have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Swansea University have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Trefelin(home) | 1-6 | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Newport City score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Swansea University score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport City | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Swansea University | 1.9 | 1.6 | 6 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport City sit 7th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Swansea University sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Newport City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport City vs Swansea University?
- The Footlab model makes Swansea University the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Newport City.
- Where and when is Newport City vs Swansea University played?
- Newport City vs Swansea University is played on August 31, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Newport Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 31, 2026Aberystwyth Townvsllanelli AFC
- Aug 31, 2026Carmarthen TownvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Aug 31, 2026Pontypridd TownvsLlantwit Major
- Aug 31, 2026Afan LidovsYnyshir Albions
- Aug 31, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsTreowen Stars
- Aug 31, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsPontardawe Town
- Aug 31, 2026Baglan DragonsvsCaerphilly Athletic