Carshalton Athletic vs Burgess Hill Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - IsthmianRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)War Memorial Sports Ground, Carshalton, Surrey
The Footlab model makes Carshalton Athletic the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Burgess Hill Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carshalton Athletic vs Burgess Hill Town?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Carshalton Athletic (1,792) and Burgess Hill Town (1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carshalton Athletic have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Burgess Hill Town have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stanway Rovers(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cray Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Wingate & Finchley(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whyteleafe(away) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dover(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheshunt(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leatherhead(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Whyteleafe(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentwood Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dover(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Carshalton Athletic win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Burgess Hill Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | Carshalton Athletic 1-2 Burgess Hill Town | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Burgess Hill Town 2-4 Carshalton Athletic | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 7, 2021 | Carshalton Athletic 1-0 Burgess Hill Town | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Carshalton Athletic vs Burgess Hill Town on Oct 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Carshalton Athletic score 1.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Burgess Hill Town score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carshalton Athletic | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Burgess Hill Town | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carshalton Athletic sit 1st in Non League Premier - Isthmian (12 points from 4 matches) and Burgess Hill Town sit 14th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carshalton Athletic | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Burgess Hill Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carshalton Athletic vs Burgess Hill Town?
- The Footlab model makes Carshalton Athletic the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Burgess Hill Town.
- Where and when is Carshalton Athletic vs Burgess Hill Town played?
- Carshalton Athletic vs Burgess Hill Town is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at War Memorial Sports Ground, in the Non League Premier - Isthmian.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.