GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC)Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate GIL Vicente (2,049) and Casa Pia (1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GIL Vicente have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Casa Pia have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 GIL Vicente win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Casa Pia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | GIL Vicente 1-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Casa Pia 0-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 2, 2023 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GIL Vicente score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GIL Vicente sit 8th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Casa Pia sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia played?
- GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia is played on August 24, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.