FC Porto vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,356 Elo points against 1,954 — a 403-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Casa Pia have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Porto win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Casa Pia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | FC Porto 4-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 2, 2024 | FC Porto 2-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 9, 2023 | FC Porto 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 1st in Primeira Liga (9 points from 3 matches) and Casa Pia sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Casa Pia played?
- FC Porto vs Casa Pia is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.