FC Porto vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 75%, against 17% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,678 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,359 Elo points against 1,983, a 376-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Porto vs Casa Pia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 19André Silva
- 17Borja Sainz
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 13P. Rosario
- 10Gabri Veiga
- 4J. Kiwior
- 20Alberto Baio
- 5J. Bednarek
- 12Z. Sanusi
- 99Diogo Costa
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 90Cassiano
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 80L. Ofori
- 77B. Pauwels
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 16Silvi
- 18Geraldes
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 43David Sousa
- 3Kaly
- 1P. Sequeira
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 01:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Casa Pia have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Porto wins, 0 draws, 1 Casa Pia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | FC Porto 4-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 2, 2024 | FC Porto 2-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 1st in Primeira Liga (27 points from 9 matches) and Casa Pia sit 16th (7 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 27 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 7 |
A question about FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 75%, against 17% for a draw and 8% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Casa Pia played?
- FC Porto vs Casa Pia is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.