Famalicao vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão
The Footlab model makes Famalicao the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Famalicao vs Estrela?
Famalicao starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (2,104 vs 1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Famalicao have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Estrela have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Como(home) | 2-3 | Como Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-0 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Famalicao win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Estrela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Estrela 0-0 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Famalicao 2-3 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Famalicao 0-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Estrela 0-3 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Famalicao 0-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Estrela 1-0 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Famalicao score 0.8 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 0.8 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Estrela | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Famalicao sit 14th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 3 matches) and Estrela sit 11th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Famalicao vs Estrela?
- The Footlab model makes Famalicao the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Famalicao vs Estrela played?
- Famalicao vs Estrela is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.