Nacional vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Nacional. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,496 Elo points against 2,020, a 476-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nacional vs Sporting CP
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 21W. Kokolo
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
Sporting CP
4-3-3- 10Geny Catamo
- 19N. Irankunda
- 97L. Suárez
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 4S. Andersen
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 20M. Araújo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 1Rui Silva
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Sporting CP have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nacional wins, 0 draws, 6 Sporting CP wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Sporting CP 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Nacional 1-4 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Sporting CP 3-1 Nacional | Taça da Liga |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Nacional 1-6 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Nacional on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 2.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Sporting CP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 16th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Sporting CP sit 3rd (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Nacional vs Sporting CP?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Sporting CP played?
- Nacional vs Sporting CP is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.