Nacional vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,393 Elo points against 1,982 — a 411-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Sporting CP have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nacional win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Sporting CP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Sporting CP 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Nacional 1-4 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Sporting CP 3-1 Nacional | Taça da Liga |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Nacional 1-6 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| May 1, 2021 | Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Nacional on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Sporting CP | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 7th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Sporting CP sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Sporting CP played?
- Nacional vs Sporting CP is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.