Casertana vs Bari: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 11Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Alberto Pinto, Caserta
The Footlab model makes Casertana the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Bari. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casertana vs Bari?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Casertana (1,841) and Bari (1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casertana have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Bari have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 3-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Savoia(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 13, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Salernitana(home) | 2-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 6, 2026 | Crotone(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cavese(home) | 3-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Casarano(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 22, 2026 | Sudtirol(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 8, 2026 | Catanzaro(away) | 3-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Casertana win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Bari win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2021 | Bari 1-1 Casertana | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 22, 2020 | Casertana 0-2 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Dec 15, 2019 | Casertana 0-3 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
How many goals should we expect?
Casertana score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bari score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casertana | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Bari | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casertana sit 9th in Serie C - Girone C (1 points from 1 matches) and Bari sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Casertana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casertana vs Bari?
- The Footlab model makes Casertana the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Bari.
- Where and when is Casertana vs Bari played?
- Casertana vs Bari is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Alberto Pinto, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.