Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Nou Estadi Castalia, Castellón de la Plana
The Footlab model makes Castellón the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for AD Ceuta FC. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Castellón (2,019) and AD Ceuta FC (1,935).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellón have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; AD Ceuta FC have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hércules(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Las Palmas(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 1-5 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Castellón win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 AD Ceuta FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC 1-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Castellón 3-3 AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Castellón 2-2 AD Ceuta FC | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | AD Ceuta FC 1-3 Castellón | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castellón score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; AD Ceuta FC score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castellón sit 5th in Segunda División (4 points from 2 matches) and AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castellón | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC?
- The Footlab model makes Castellón the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for AD Ceuta FC.
- Where and when is Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC played?
- Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Nou Estadi Castalia, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.