Las Palmas vs Valladolid: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Valladolid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Las Palmas starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (2,019 vs 1,877).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Las Palmas have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Valladolid have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEOM(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eibar(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnástica Segoviana(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Las Palmas win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Valladolid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Las Palmas 2-1 Valladolid | Segunda División |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Valladolid 0-1 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Valladolid 1-1 Las Palmas | La Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Las Palmas 2-1 Valladolid | La Liga |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Valladolid 0-1 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| Dec 15, 2021 | Valladolid 3-1 Las Palmas | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: Las Palmas vs Valladolid on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Las Palmas score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Valladolid score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Valladolid | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Las Palmas sit 1st in Segunda División (6 points from 2 matches) and Valladolid sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Palmas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 21 | Valladolid | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
- The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Valladolid.
- Where and when is Las Palmas vs Valladolid played?
- Las Palmas vs Valladolid is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Gran Canaria, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.