Castuera vs Llerenense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Ruiz, Castuera
The Footlab model makes Castuera the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Llerenense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castuera vs Llerenense?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Castuera (1,677) and Llerenense (1,766).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castuera have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Llerenense have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Badajoz(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 4, 2025 | Trujillo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Puebla Calzada(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Extremadura 1924(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Calamonte(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 1, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Montehermoso(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villanovense(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Castuera win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Llerenense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2025 | Castuera 3-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Llerenense 2-2 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Castuera vs Llerenense on Mar 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Castuera score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Llerenense score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castuera | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Llerenense | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castuera vs Llerenense?
- The Footlab model makes Castuera the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Llerenense.
- Where and when is Castuera vs Llerenense played?
- Castuera vs Llerenense is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Ruiz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.