Castuera vs Llerenense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Ruiz, Castuera
The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Llerenense. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castuera vs Llerenense?
On Elo ratings, Castuera has 1,723 points and Llerenense 1,811.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castuera vs Llerenense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Llerenense
Not enough data to predict the Llerenense lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castuera have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Llerenense have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Plasencia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Jerez(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gévora(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CD Zafra(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guadiana(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Castuera win, 1 draw, 0 Llerenense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2025 | Castuera 3-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Llerenense 2-2 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Castuera vs Llerenense on Mar 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Castuera score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Llerenense score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castuera | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Llerenense | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castuera sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (12 points from 5 matches) and Llerenense sit 3rd (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Llerenense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
A question about Castuera vs Llerenense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castuera vs Llerenense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Llerenense.
- Where and when is Castuera vs Llerenense played?
- Castuera vs Llerenense is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Ruiz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.