Jaraíz vs Castuera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera, Jaraíz de la Vera
The Footlab AI model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Castuera. The most likely score is 1-1. If Jaraíz wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jaraíz vs Castuera?
Jaraíz starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,822 vs 1,707).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Jaraíz vs Castuera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Jaraíz
Not enough data to predict the Jaraíz lineup.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 12:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jaraíz have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Castuera have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Villafranca(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Llerenense(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Moralo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Plasencia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Jerez(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Jaraíz wins, 1 draw, 1 Castuera win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Castuera 3-3 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Jaraíz 2-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Jaraíz 2-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Castuera 1-0 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Jaraíz score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Castuera score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaraíz | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Castuera | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jaraíz sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (5 points from 7 matches) and Castuera sit 5th (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castuera | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 12 |
| 14 | Jaraíz | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 5 |
A question about Jaraíz vs Castuera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jaraíz vs Castuera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Castuera.
- Where and when is Jaraíz vs Castuera played?
- Jaraíz vs Castuera is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.