Match

CD Motagua vs CD Marathon: prediction and stats

Liga NacionalApertura - 12Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC)Estadio José de la Paz Herrera Uclés, Tegucigalpa

CD MotaguaCD Marathon

The Footlab AI model makes CD Motagua the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for CD Marathon. The most likely score is 1-1. If CD Motagua wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 3,354 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?

A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate CD Motagua (1,804) and CD Marathon (1,789).

42%28%30%
CD Motagua winDrawCD Marathon win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for CD Motagua vs CD Marathon

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

CD Motagua

4-3-3
  1. 19Rodrigo De Olivera Donado
  2. 21J. Bernardez
  3. 33E. Izaguirre
  1. 8D. Meléndez
  2. 23A. Reyes
  3. 27J. Macías
  1. 34G. Sacaza
  2. 17J. Portillo
  3. 36V. Marinacci
  4. 4L. Vega
  1. 22L. Ortiz

CD Marathon

4-3-3
  1. 11N. Messiniti
  2. 12Y. Mejía
  3. 29C. Perez
  1. 8T. Sorto
  2. 9B. Farioli
  3. 10D. Ramírez
  1. 22C. Argueta
  2. 2H. Figueroa
  3. 4J. Rivera
  4. 16S. Agurcia
  1. 1J. Rougier

Computed on October 25, 2026 at 09:22 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CD Motagua have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; CD Marathon have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

CD Motagua
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 23, 2026LD Alajuelense(home)0-0CONCACAF Central American Cup
Oct 17, 2026Platense FC(away)2-0Liga Nacional
Oct 10, 2026Atlético Choloma(home)2-1Liga Nacional
Sep 20, 2026Real Espana(away)0-1Liga Nacional
Sep 17, 2026Alianza(away)0-0CONCACAF Central American Cup
CD Marathon
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 25, 2026Atletico Independiente(away)2-2Liga Nacional
Oct 21, 2026Alianza(home)2-1CONCACAF Central American Cup
Oct 15, 2026Olancho(home)2-1Liga Nacional
Oct 11, 2026Lobos Upnfm(away)0-0Liga Nacional
Sep 21, 2026Juticalpa(away)2-3Liga Nacional

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 CD Motagua wins, 4 draws, 2 CD Marathon wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 24, 2026CD Motagua 0-0 CD MarathonLiga Nacional
May 22, 2026CD Marathon 1-1 CD MotaguaLiga Nacional
Apr 10, 2026CD Marathon 1-0 CD MotaguaLiga Nacional
Feb 15, 2026CD Motagua 1-1 CD MarathonLiga Nacional
Oct 25, 2025CD Marathon 1-0 CD MotaguaLiga Nacional
Aug 18, 2025CD Motagua 3-3 CD MarathonLiga Nacional

Last archived meeting: CD Motagua vs CD Marathon on May 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

CD Motagua score 1.2 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; CD Marathon score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
CD Motagua1.20.776/155/15
CD Marathon1.81.068/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

CD Motagua sit 4th in Liga Nacional (19 points from 10 matches) and CD Marathon sit 3rd (22 points from 11 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3CD Marathon1164118922
4CD Motagua1061315919

A question about CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for CD Motagua vs CD Marathon?
The Footlab AI model makes CD Motagua the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for CD Marathon.
Where and when is CD Motagua vs CD Marathon played?
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon is played on November 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio José de la Paz Herrera Uclés, in the Liga Nacional.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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